TARPIT (The Amazing Race 4)


Well, another race has begun and I will naturally be following. To add some level of interactivity to the experience, however, I've whipped up a little something something that will predict a winner (yes, after just one episode). But, first the contenders.

The Teams
    Team "Chunky" Steve & Debra
      They gave it their all, but the only race these guys are cut out for are is the rat race at the local Rainbow Foods.

    Team "Glitter" Tian & Jaree
      On a "good night", these two spend about 3 hours getting ready, a half hour on the dance floor bumping against guys with too much colongne, an hour in the ladies room and 15 minutes blowing off the guys who are invariably not good enough for them.

    Team "Squeaking By" David & Jeff
      Evidently these guys are big real estate shots -- too bad they couldn't bring their Excursions with the built-in navigation equipment on the race.

    Team "Dysfunction" Amanda & Chris
      She likes being yelled at. And he knows it.

    Team "Carnie" Jon & Al
      I'm just jealous of these two because I want to be able to balance things on my nose.

    Team "3rd and Long" Monica & Sheree
      I hope they wear those jerseys on EVERY leg. Talk about intimidating.

    Team "Married (in Vermont and Hawaii)" Reichen & Chip
      I like these guys because they're not flamboyant divas. Sometimes that helps, though.

    Team "It'll Last" Russell & Cindy
      He describes her as a "female James Bond character", but doesn't believe it. Neither do I.

    Team "Crash and Burn" Steve & Dave
      These guys are enthusiastic but I hope they brought lots of Icy Hot.

    Team "Too Strict" Steve & Josh
      Father/son pairs always lose. Sorry pops, we'd do better on family feud.

    Team "High Maintainence" Kelly & Jon
      They met in a bar in South Beach. Need I say more?

    Team "2nd Base" Millie & Chuck
      To say that these guys are scared of commitment is like saying Flo from the last race had a slight anger management problem.

The Process
    I gave the teams points from 0-2 based on the following criterion:

    Whininess - Sheer amount of moaning and griping
    Compatibility - Do they get along or will they be at each other's throats the whole race?
    Appearence - TV wants sexy
    Sarcasm - How many quips will make it into those 5-second promo spots?
    Navigation - How lost will each team get?
    Athleticism - This is a race
    Sneakiness - Backstabbing, conniving, tomfoolery, etc

    Probably not the best data set from which to work with, but let's face it, people will be rooting for the teams based on these characteristics. Based on this data, the tremendously complex prediction algorithm evaluates all the data and other variables, such as weather and time of day. I call my script 'TARPIT', or 'The Amazing Race Processing Intensive ... Thewinnerpredictor"

    Team data file
    Rankings data file
The Prediction
    Don't look if you want it to be a secret! 
      [Eliminations]

Team "Chunky" will be eliminated on Leg 1
Team "Married (in Vermont and Hawaii)" will be eliminated on Leg 2
Team "2nd Base" will be eliminated on Leg 3
Team "3rd and Long" will be eliminated on Leg 4
Team "Crash and Burn" will be eliminated on Leg 5
Team "Glitter" will be eliminated on Leg 6
Team "It'll Last" will be eliminated on Leg 7
Team "Squeaking By" will be eliminated on Leg 8
Team "Carnie" will be eliminated on Leg 9
Team "Too Strict" will be eliminated on Leg 10
Team "High Maintainence" will be eliminated on Leg 11
Team "Dysfunction" will be eliminated on Leg 12
    To my astonishment, the first prediction is right without any rigging of the data, so this must be accurate. Enjoy your money Amanda & Chris.

    The Vastly Overcomplicated Prediction Script (Written in Ruby)